EUR/HUF: Forint to keep gains as central bank maintains hawkishness – ING

A mild improvement in global risk taking paired with the hawkish National Bank of Hungary translated into a strong month for the Hungarian forint. Further tightening should keep the HUF in demand, analysts at ING report.

EUR/HUF might try to break through 345

“After a close to 4% appreciation, EUR/HUF might try to break through 345. However, to see that barrier fall, the NBH needs to create some more hawkish surprises, but the bar is quite high as the market has already priced in a quite strong hiking cycle.” 

“We might see the base rate at 2.25% by year-end and as the NBH is unlikely to continue its cycle so close to the general election, it might be the terminal rate too. Such an outcome vs market expectations could push the cross back to 355-360.”