US ADP Employment Change July Preview: Hiring caution to weaken the dollar

Hiring is expected to slow substantially in July to 1.5 million. Market concern that the recovery in employment is stalling has weakened the dollar. If the report comes in line or below expectations, the greenback will be hit harder, FXStreet’s analyst Joseph Trevisani reports.

Key quotes

“Private payrolls from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) are forecast to have gained 1.5 million workers last month down from the 2.369 million increase in June and 3.065 million in May. All told US companies serviced by ADP have recouped 28% of April’s record 19.409 million lost jobs.”

“If ADP is as expected or worse the dollar’s weakness will be reinstated. If the anticipated slowdown in hiring does not occur, short dollar positions will suddenly be a good deal less valuable.”