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Recent comments from Fed officials on US economy and monetary policy

Cleveland Federal Reserve President and the non-voting member of the rate-setting FOMC Loretta Mester said on February 19:

  • Fed funds rate may need to move “a bit higher” if the economy performs as she expects.
  • The most likely scenario is that the economic growth will slow this year, job growth will slow, and inflation will stay near 2%. 
  • Fed is not far behind or ahead of curve and can gather information on the economy before adjusting rate policy. 
  • I would be comfortable slowing or stopping reinvestment of maturing securities this year.
  • If I was to make the decision on my own, I would favor slowing reinvestment of Fed's maturing securities. 
  • My preference is for Fed to hold primarily treasuries and I would favor shorter term treasuries.
  • The rate increase may be needed later this year.
  • I do not think ending balance sheet trimming would have a material impact on the economy.

New York Fed President John Williams said on February 19 for Reuters:

  • I am comfortable with the interest rates level now and I see no need to raise them again unless growth or inflation shifts to an unexpectedly higher gear.
  • The Fed would continue trimming its bond portfolio well into next year.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President and the non-voting member of the rate-setting FOMC Mary Daly said on February 20:

  • I see more headwinds, including slower global growth, uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions.
  • There's nothing on the radar that says that the US is slipping into the recession.
  • Impact of uncertainty is pretty substantial but it can slow the economy.
  • We are very near a neutral level of rates.
  • The US economy is restraining itself and faces headwinds, so Fed needs patience on rates.
  • Patience on rates is needed until inflation is rising faster.


St. Louis Federal Reserve President and the non-voting member of the rate-setting FOMC James Bullard said on February 21 on CNBC:
Fed is in a good place today.

  • I think rates are a bit tight right now and the December rate hike was a "step too far". 
  • I would like to see inflation numbers improve. 
  • Political factors not involved in FED decisions.
  • Fed is likely near the end of interest rate increases and program to reduce bonds it holds on its balance sheet.
  • Growth is slowing in China and it will continue to slow.
  • China has a long term issue of an aging population.
  • The probability of recession in the US has picked up because the yield curve has nearly inverted.
  • The US economy is slowing although not terribly and it needs productivity growth.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic and the non-voting members of the rate-setting FOMC said in Dublin on February 21:

  • Fed is close to neutral policy rate right now.
  • The US economy is pretty good, inflation is not much faster.
  • It is imprudent to project policy path given the uncertainty.


 

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