AUD/JPY: Break above 23.6% Fib remains elusive

• The corrective rally is struggling to break above the 23.6% Fib retracement of January - March sell-off.
• Eyes NAB confidence indicators and XI's speech.

AUD/JPY has failed to take out 82.52 (23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of January - March sell-off) for three straight days, indicating the corrective rally from the March 23 low of 80.50 may have run out of steam.

As of writing, the cross is trading largely unchanged on the day at 82.15. The immediate focus is on the release of the National Australia Bank's (NAB) business confidence and business conditions indices. The Aussie dollar may find bids if the NAB indices beat estimates and the bank sees increased odds of an RBA rate hike this year.

Also, China's President Xi Jinping's speech at the Boao forum is eyed. Markets will likely turn risk off if President Xi expresses readiness to go the distance in the ongoing trade war with the Us. That said, Xi is seen adopting a more balanced stance, while warning about letting the tariff disputes escalate into a trade war.

AUD/JPY Technical Levels

A daily close above 82.52 (23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement) would revive the corrective rally and will likely be followed by a move higher to the descending 50-day moving average (MA), currently located at 83.39 and 83.77 (38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement).

On the downside, acceptance below 81.39 (10-day MA) would accentuate downside pressure, opening doors for 80.83 (April 4 low) and 80.76 (March 28 low).