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6 Mar 2014
Flash: EUR/USD mute today, mute tomorrow? - FXStreet
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, FXStreet Chief Analyst notes that the EUR/USD has been pretty much on hold over the past couple days, due to a mixture of risk aversion and uncertainty over upcoming fundamental data.
Key Quotes
“Well, the ECB monthly economic decision result to be unveiled in a couple hours, so at least one of the data that’s keeping the pair steady will see the light.”
“Many expect the ECB will do a move to boost the economic recovery, either some sort of QE or a rate cut, including negative deposit rates. But latest data suggests Mario Draghi will do neither today, as inflation ticked up to 0.8% this month, while manufacturing and services activities also shown signs of growth. In that case, the pair will likely get a boost towards 1.3370/90 price zone, and if above then probably extend up to 1.3830 price zone.”
“But it could also happen that no changes in policy mean no changes in EUR/USD and the pair will continue consolidating until tomorrow’s US employment data. I do believe this one is a more subtle barometer of what the pair can do over these upcoming weeks: US data has been pretty disappointing this winter, most blaming it on the polar wave, and another round of negative readings may push investors to price in no QE tapering this March, giving the pair a boost.”
“In the meantime, the technical levels to watch today are 1.3700/10 price zone, immediate support, as a price acceleration below it should lead to a downward acceleration towards 1.3640. The upside is being capped in the short term by 1.3740, so if price advances through it, the rally may extend up to mentioned 1.3370/90 area in the short term.”
Key Quotes
“Well, the ECB monthly economic decision result to be unveiled in a couple hours, so at least one of the data that’s keeping the pair steady will see the light.”
“Many expect the ECB will do a move to boost the economic recovery, either some sort of QE or a rate cut, including negative deposit rates. But latest data suggests Mario Draghi will do neither today, as inflation ticked up to 0.8% this month, while manufacturing and services activities also shown signs of growth. In that case, the pair will likely get a boost towards 1.3370/90 price zone, and if above then probably extend up to 1.3830 price zone.”
“But it could also happen that no changes in policy mean no changes in EUR/USD and the pair will continue consolidating until tomorrow’s US employment data. I do believe this one is a more subtle barometer of what the pair can do over these upcoming weeks: US data has been pretty disappointing this winter, most blaming it on the polar wave, and another round of negative readings may push investors to price in no QE tapering this March, giving the pair a boost.”
“In the meantime, the technical levels to watch today are 1.3700/10 price zone, immediate support, as a price acceleration below it should lead to a downward acceleration towards 1.3640. The upside is being capped in the short term by 1.3740, so if price advances through it, the rally may extend up to mentioned 1.3370/90 area in the short term.”