Back

Eurozone: inflation outlook remains subdued despite higher oil price - Danske Bank

According to analysts from Danske Bank, recent higher oil prices will not change the ECB’s medium-term inflation and monetary policy as higher oil prices need to affect inflation expectations and wage agreements to have a lasting impact on inflation.

Key Quotes: 

“We have marginally raised our inflation forecast for 2018 due to higher energy-price inflation, but inflation pressures will still decelerate and energy-price inflation will continue to be a drag from late 2018 and 2019, according to our projection.”

“Without continued steep rises in oil prices or second-round effects materialising, we do not expect that recent higher oil prices will have a lasting impact on the euro area inflation outlook and therefore will also not speed up the ECB’s exit from extraordinary monetary policy measures.”

“Several ECB members have recently floated the possibility of de-coupling the forward guidance on QE from the requirement of a sustained rise in inflation, which could open up the possibility of the ECB ending the QE programme in 2018, even without a clear pick-up in inflation.”

“Supported by the continued strong economic momentum, we expect core inflation to stay above 1.0% in 2018 and 2019 which should be an important argument for the ECB in its decision to end the QE programme in 2018.”

“We project that core inflation will not accelerate before 2019, as the outlook for wage growth remains subdued.”

“We expect that despite a pick-up in core inflation in 2019, inflation will continue to undershoot the ECB’s target as even higher energy-price inflation is required to lift HICP inflation back to the 2% target.”
 

What to expect from key US ISM nonmanufacturing? - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura noted the key data this week and offered a preview of Tuesday's key ISM nonmanufacturing index that they expect to decline slightly
อ่านเพิ่มเติม Previous

US Factory Orders: Positive details show momentum for Q4 - Wells Fargo

Factory orders pulled back in October, dipping 0.1% after September’s upwardly revised 1.7% increase, shipments were up strongly, hinting at a...
อ่านเพิ่มเติม Next