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28 Sep 2015
US NFP preview: 225K gain with 5% employment rate – SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Societe Generale, suggest that it doesn't seem likely that Friday's US employment data will change the debate about Fed policy much, unless the numbers are surprisingly weak.
Key Quotes
“We expect a 225K gain and a drop to 5% in the unemployment rate. There's nothing much wrong with the domestic US economy - GDP grew at a 3.9% annualised rate in Q2, employment growth is a bit above 2% per annum, and wage growth also a bit above 2% per annum, which represents an acceleration in real terms as inflation has slowed.”
“By the time we get there we will have seen the September manufacturing ISM (against a dismal global backdrop for manufacturing confidence look for a dip to 50.4) and it's hard to imagine a sufficiently strong set of data overall to offset concerns at the FOMC about the global environment.”
Key Quotes
“We expect a 225K gain and a drop to 5% in the unemployment rate. There's nothing much wrong with the domestic US economy - GDP grew at a 3.9% annualised rate in Q2, employment growth is a bit above 2% per annum, and wage growth also a bit above 2% per annum, which represents an acceleration in real terms as inflation has slowed.”
“By the time we get there we will have seen the September manufacturing ISM (against a dismal global backdrop for manufacturing confidence look for a dip to 50.4) and it's hard to imagine a sufficiently strong set of data overall to offset concerns at the FOMC about the global environment.”