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28 Sep 2015
USDCAD: Confined to tight ranges – TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Ned Rumpeltin, European Head of Currency Strategy at TD Securities, notes that the USDCAD is confined to tight ranges alongside most other major currencies today, holding within the 1.3315/1.3345 zone since the opening in Asia overnight.
Key Quotes
“Spot continues to run above our estimate of Fair Value, currently around 1.2932, as oil prices remain stable but interest rate differentials have moved further in Canada’s favour over the last several days.”
“We continue to look for a pullback to the 1.3150/1.3200 area over the next several days to close some of USDCAD’s valuation gap to underlying fundamental drivers. This, we think, could set the stage for the next stage of the advance of the broader uptrend, however. Domestically, the Canadian data calendar remains quiet until Wednesday’s monthly GDP reading for July. There, we are in line with the consensus in looking for +0.2% m/m, in what would be only the second consecutive positive readings this year-to-date.”
Key Quotes
“Spot continues to run above our estimate of Fair Value, currently around 1.2932, as oil prices remain stable but interest rate differentials have moved further in Canada’s favour over the last several days.”
“We continue to look for a pullback to the 1.3150/1.3200 area over the next several days to close some of USDCAD’s valuation gap to underlying fundamental drivers. This, we think, could set the stage for the next stage of the advance of the broader uptrend, however. Domestically, the Canadian data calendar remains quiet until Wednesday’s monthly GDP reading for July. There, we are in line with the consensus in looking for +0.2% m/m, in what would be only the second consecutive positive readings this year-to-date.”