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21 Aug 2015
The US calendar is key next week - TDS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at TD Securities noted the big three events scheduled for next week for the US.
Key Quotes:
"1. Jackson Hole Symposium (27-29 Aug): This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium is likely to be devoid of any major fireworks given the noticeable absence of Fed Chair Yellen. In her absence Vice-Chair Fischer will deliver the keynote address. Nevertheless, given the focus on inflation dynamics and monetary policy this conference could potentially be used as a platform for signaling the Fed’s intention on monetary policy, and we look for some indication (albeit tacit at best) that the September base-case for liftoff remains intact.
2. Durable Goods Orders (26 Aug): Weaker Boeing aircraft orders should push headline durable goods orders modestly lower, as some of last month’s strong gains are surrendered. However, with underlying economic growth momentum remaining positive core orders should continue the recent improving trend, gaining a further 0.5% m/m as the relatively constructive tone in business capital investment intentions is sustained.
3. US GDP (27 Aug): Revisions to Q2 GDP should be positive, and we look for the second estimate to be revised up to a relatively robust 3.3% q/q pace from 2.3% q/q. The upgrade in Q2 economic growth performance will underscore a strong rebound in the economic recovery from the weather-induced earlier this year, pointing to an economic recovery that is on much firmer footing that previously thought. And with much of the upward revisions coming from the strong performance in the latter half of the quarter, the handoff to Q3 GDP will be quite favourable."
Key Quotes:
"1. Jackson Hole Symposium (27-29 Aug): This year’s Jackson Hole Symposium is likely to be devoid of any major fireworks given the noticeable absence of Fed Chair Yellen. In her absence Vice-Chair Fischer will deliver the keynote address. Nevertheless, given the focus on inflation dynamics and monetary policy this conference could potentially be used as a platform for signaling the Fed’s intention on monetary policy, and we look for some indication (albeit tacit at best) that the September base-case for liftoff remains intact.
2. Durable Goods Orders (26 Aug): Weaker Boeing aircraft orders should push headline durable goods orders modestly lower, as some of last month’s strong gains are surrendered. However, with underlying economic growth momentum remaining positive core orders should continue the recent improving trend, gaining a further 0.5% m/m as the relatively constructive tone in business capital investment intentions is sustained.
3. US GDP (27 Aug): Revisions to Q2 GDP should be positive, and we look for the second estimate to be revised up to a relatively robust 3.3% q/q pace from 2.3% q/q. The upgrade in Q2 economic growth performance will underscore a strong rebound in the economic recovery from the weather-induced earlier this year, pointing to an economic recovery that is on much firmer footing that previously thought. And with much of the upward revisions coming from the strong performance in the latter half of the quarter, the handoff to Q3 GDP will be quite favourable."