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23 Feb 2015
FX trade ideas outside of the ‘US’ story – JPM
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The J.P.Morgan Team suggests trade ideas for FX while considering issues prevailing outside of the US, keeping focus on cross-rates.
Key Quotes
“Last month, we neutralized long USD exposure because the currency was expensive on short-term models, positions are quite long and most US activity data are undershooting expectations. Idiosyncratic issues outside the US are more interesting, so we stay focused on the cross-rates.”
“Sell EUR/DKK on today’s bounce since concerns about balance sheet policy will likely persist for a long time. Stay short EUR/CZK.”
“Buy USD/TWD as a carry-efficient way to position for PBoC-driven depreciation in CNY.”
“Stay short commodity FX via EUR/AUD and GBP/NOK on a view that oil’s oversupply should push prices lower again.”
“Stay short USD/SEK on overhyped QE.”
“In Latam, extend the target on long CLP/COP and hold short CAD/MXN; we now expect USD/BRL to reach 3.10 by year end.”
Key Quotes
“Last month, we neutralized long USD exposure because the currency was expensive on short-term models, positions are quite long and most US activity data are undershooting expectations. Idiosyncratic issues outside the US are more interesting, so we stay focused on the cross-rates.”
“Sell EUR/DKK on today’s bounce since concerns about balance sheet policy will likely persist for a long time. Stay short EUR/CZK.”
“Buy USD/TWD as a carry-efficient way to position for PBoC-driven depreciation in CNY.”
“Stay short commodity FX via EUR/AUD and GBP/NOK on a view that oil’s oversupply should push prices lower again.”
“Stay short USD/SEK on overhyped QE.”
“In Latam, extend the target on long CLP/COP and hold short CAD/MXN; we now expect USD/BRL to reach 3.10 by year end.”