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24 Dec 2014
US Q3 GDP impresses, jobless claims expected at 290k – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Analysts at Nomura share that US Q3 GDP beat market expectations with the 5% upside revision, well above consensus (4.3%), and note that consensus expects the initial jobless claims to come at 290k.
Key Quotes
“The BEA revised up Q3 GDP to 5.0% from 3.9%, beating market expectations (Nomura: 4.3%, Consensus: 4.3%). The upside surprise came primarily from stronger-than-expected PCE service spending in Q3, which was revised up from an increase of 1.2% to an increase of 2.5%. On a GDP contribution basis, PCE services added 1.15pp to growth compared to the previous estimate of 0.54pp. Looking at the details, the healthcare (4.6%), food services and accommodations (4.9%), and financial services and insurance (7.1%) components of PCE services grew at a robust pace in Q3.”
“This was a positive report on growth in Q3 2014 and points to better momentum for consumer activity heading into Q4 and early 2015. However, recent developments abroad and in financial markets could be drags on business fixed investment going forward. In this context, we believe the risks are balanced for our call for the economy to grow in the 3% zone for the next several quarters before slowing as the output gap narrows.”
“Initial jobless claims: The four-week moving average of initial claims has been below the 300k threshold for over three months, a sign that involuntary separations are at their nadir. Consensus expects 290k claims.”
Key Quotes
“The BEA revised up Q3 GDP to 5.0% from 3.9%, beating market expectations (Nomura: 4.3%, Consensus: 4.3%). The upside surprise came primarily from stronger-than-expected PCE service spending in Q3, which was revised up from an increase of 1.2% to an increase of 2.5%. On a GDP contribution basis, PCE services added 1.15pp to growth compared to the previous estimate of 0.54pp. Looking at the details, the healthcare (4.6%), food services and accommodations (4.9%), and financial services and insurance (7.1%) components of PCE services grew at a robust pace in Q3.”
“This was a positive report on growth in Q3 2014 and points to better momentum for consumer activity heading into Q4 and early 2015. However, recent developments abroad and in financial markets could be drags on business fixed investment going forward. In this context, we believe the risks are balanced for our call for the economy to grow in the 3% zone for the next several quarters before slowing as the output gap narrows.”
“Initial jobless claims: The four-week moving average of initial claims has been below the 300k threshold for over three months, a sign that involuntary separations are at their nadir. Consensus expects 290k claims.”